Tesla Robotaxi Reveal: What to Expect
Tesla is gearing up to reveal its Robotaxi this Thursday. Everyone wants to know what it will look like, whether Tesla will unveil a commercialization strategy, and what outrageous timelines Elon Musk might announce to boost Tesla’s stock.
The “We, Robot” event will take place at 7 p.m. PT at Warner Bros. Discovery’s movie studio in Burbank, California. We’ve got details on how to watch it here. Plus, you can follow our reactions to the Robotaxi event via our live blog.
Musk had originally planned to reveal the Robotaxi—also called a Cybercab—on August 8. That’s a deadline Musk set shortly after a Reuters report said Tesla shelved plans for a lower-cost EV to focus on the robotaxi.
While Musk initially accused Reuters of lying, Tesla laid off 10% of staff to enter a “next phase of growth.” Musk said Tesla would go “balls to the wall for autonomy.”
Tesla has seldom stuck to Musk’s timelines. As expected, the Robotaxi event got pushed back to October after Musk requested “an important design change to the front.”
Investors who support Tesla’s vision for autonomy have been waiting for the Robotaxi reveal. However, the timing might not be great. Tesla’s margins have suffered over the past year due to increased Cybertruck production and other factors. Its third-quarter deliveries were disappointing, and Tesla has issued its fifth Cybertruck recall within a year.
A new vehicle would mean more investment into production lines, factory downtime, and other potentially costly issues—things investors don’t want to hear.
Whether it’s all hype or at least some substance, we will soon find out. Here’s what we expect to see.
A Cybercab Prototype
The main thing we expect is a prototype for a new vehicle concept. This will be Tesla’s first since announcing the Cybertruck in November 2019.
Musk has referred to the robotaxi as a Cybercab. This confirms the design concept revealed last year in Walter Isaacson’s biography—a two-door, two-seater, Cybertruck-like compact vehicle with angular edges and a stainless steel finish.
The vehicle will likely be built without a steering wheel or pedals. While Tesla engineers have opposed this, Musk is firm on bringing a purpose-built vehicle to market, as stated in Isaacson’s book.
Tesla may face regulatory issues for that design choice, which don’t align with federal motor safety standards. We expect Musk to cite these as reasons why getting the Cybercab to market will be difficult.
Tesla’s lead designer, Franz Von Holzhausen, told TechCrunch’s Kirsten Korosec that the existing vehicle portfolio has laid the foundation for what’s to come with the Robotaxi.
“In a strange sort of way, we’ve been working our way—in a very public way—to what an autonomous future will look like,” Von Holzhausen said. “So you see the big interface that we have, the way it’s configurable and upgradable, and we bring a variety of entertainment pieces to it, and some humor as well. I think that will continue to evolve.”
Smoke and Mirrors
Tesla usually hosts its big reveal events at its facilities. The Hollywood studio choice signals that Musk’s showmanship will be on display.
The studio is open for tours, so visitors—mainly Tesla shareholders and superfans—will see sets from Batman, Friends, Gilmore Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Harry Potter, and other titles.
It allows Tesla to take advantage of large sound stages and sets resembling a slice of suburbia. This could be the perfect place for Tesla to demo its Cybercab in autonomous action. It’s a controlled environment with no other traffic where the car can drive itself at low speed.
We think the demo could feature the ride-hailing app teased during Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call in April.
Other Vehicle and Product Announcements
The title of the event, “We, Robot,” nods to Isaac Asimov’s “I, Robot,” exploring the relationship between robots and humans. Many believe the event will feature updates on Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. Asimov’s stories revolve around three laws of robotics prioritizing human safety—1) A robot may not injure a human being or allow a human to be injured through inaction; 2) A robot must obey orders given by a human unless that conflicts with the first law; 3) A robot must protect its own existence unless that contradicts the first two laws. Those fit neatly into autonomous driving.
Deepwater Asset Management predicts that in addition to a Cybercab prototype, Tesla will provide previews (but not a prototype) for the $25,000 EV, which fans call the Model 2. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker expect the Model 2 to look similar to the Cybercab, likely based on comments from Tesla that the two would share a platform.
The firm also thinks Tesla will share more details on a Cybervan, a fully autonomous passenger van that could one day augment public transportation. This prediction is based on Tesla’s March 2023 investor presentation featuring a lineup of current and future vehicles, including a teaser of a van-sized car.
Some Potential Wildcards
Building a robotaxi is one thing. Commercializing it is another. Tesla may rely on its unique vehicles and general fan power to attract customers for a ride-hail service, but many won’t want to switch to a service likely to be less reliable at launch.
One wildcard prediction is that Tesla could announce a partnership with Uber, which has shown that its global ride-hail platform attracts autonomous vehicle companies. Over the past weeks, Uber has rapidly signed AV companies like Waymo, Cruise, Wayve, and others. While Musk seems to want to go it alone, partnering might be the best way to commercialize these vehicles.
Another potential wildcard is that McDonald’s might be involved, based on an X post from the fast food chain saying, “chat’s about to pop off 10.10.” Musk replied with the laugh-crying emoji, suggesting we might see some autonomous food delivery demo or announcement with McDonald’s on Thursday.
What We Don’t Expect to See
There will be plenty of hype and chatter about Musk’s vision of an autonomous future. The executive will likely make the same argument that Uber made a decade ago about shared rides. It will be so easy and cheap to hail an AV that people won’t need to own vehicles.
A rosy picture, but we don’t expect a clear path to commercialization on Thursday.
In the past, Musk said Tesla vehicles would achieve autonomy with merely a software update, allowing owners to add their cars to Tesla’s ride-sharing app and rent them out for extra cash. Tesla has said it would take about 25% to 30% of the ride revenue. In areas lacking enough people to share cars, Tesla would provide a dedicated fleet of robotaxis.
Musk has promised a fully autonomous Tesla for years but has yet to introduce one. Despite advancements in its driver assistance system, called Full Self-Driving (FSD), the tech is still not fully self-driving. It requires a human driver to stay attentive behind the wheel and take over if needed.
This might be why Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, a well-known Tesla bull, expects Tesla will offer a “dual” approach to autonomous ridesharing. There will be a “supervised” autonomous/FSD rideshare service and a fully autonomous app-based Cybercab. He anticipates an initial commercial launch slated for late 2025 or 2026.
Regarding Cybercab production, Deepwater analysts point to the lag between Tesla’s product unveilings and ramping production. The minimum gap was 10 months with the Model Y, while the Cybertruck took 48 months, and the Semi is at 79 months and counting.
Tesla delivered a handful of Semis in December 2022 but has yet to ramp up to volume production.
“This suggests production for any vehicles announced in August would begin in June 2025 at the earliest,” Deepwater wrote.
Since the robotaxi event got pushed back for Tesla to “make some important changes,” the product is likely still far from being ready for production.
The “We, Robot” event will take place at 7 p.m. PT at Warner Bros. Discovery’s movie studio in Burbank, California. We’ve got details on how to watch it here. Plus, you can follow our reactions to the Robotaxi event via our live blog.
Musk had originally planned to reveal the Robotaxi—also called a Cybercab—on August 8. That’s a deadline Musk set shortly after a Reuters report said Tesla shelved plans for a lower-cost EV to focus on the robotaxi.
While Musk initially accused Reuters of lying, Tesla laid off 10% of staff to enter a “next phase of growth.” Musk said Tesla would go “balls to the wall for autonomy.”
Tesla has seldom stuck to Musk’s timelines. As expected, the Robotaxi event got pushed back to October after Musk requested “an important design change to the front.”
Investors who support Tesla’s vision for autonomy have been waiting for the Robotaxi reveal. However, the timing might not be great. Tesla’s margins have suffered over the past year due to increased Cybertruck production and other factors. Its third-quarter deliveries were disappointing, and Tesla has issued its fifth Cybertruck recall within a year.
A new vehicle would mean more investment into production lines, factory downtime, and other potentially costly issues—things investors don’t want to hear.
Whether it’s all hype or at least some substance, we will soon find out. Here’s what we expect to see.
A Cybercab Prototype
The main thing we expect is a prototype for a new vehicle concept. This will be Tesla’s first since announcing the Cybertruck in November 2019.
Musk has referred to the robotaxi as a Cybercab. This confirms the design concept revealed last year in Walter Isaacson’s biography—a two-door, two-seater, Cybertruck-like compact vehicle with angular edges and a stainless steel finish.
The vehicle will likely be built without a steering wheel or pedals. While Tesla engineers have opposed this, Musk is firm on bringing a purpose-built vehicle to market, as stated in Isaacson’s book.
Tesla may face regulatory issues for that design choice, which don’t align with federal motor safety standards. We expect Musk to cite these as reasons why getting the Cybercab to market will be difficult.
Tesla’s lead designer, Franz Von Holzhausen, told TechCrunch’s Kirsten Korosec that the existing vehicle portfolio has laid the foundation for what’s to come with the Robotaxi.
“In a strange sort of way, we’ve been working our way—in a very public way—to what an autonomous future will look like,” Von Holzhausen said. “So you see the big interface that we have, the way it’s configurable and upgradable, and we bring a variety of entertainment pieces to it, and some humor as well. I think that will continue to evolve.”
Smoke and Mirrors
Tesla usually hosts its big reveal events at its facilities. The Hollywood studio choice signals that Musk’s showmanship will be on display.
The studio is open for tours, so visitors—mainly Tesla shareholders and superfans—will see sets from Batman, Friends, Gilmore Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Harry Potter, and other titles.
It allows Tesla to take advantage of large sound stages and sets resembling a slice of suburbia. This could be the perfect place for Tesla to demo its Cybercab in autonomous action. It’s a controlled environment with no other traffic where the car can drive itself at low speed.
We think the demo could feature the ride-hailing app teased during Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call in April.
Other Vehicle and Product Announcements
The title of the event, “We, Robot,” nods to Isaac Asimov’s “I, Robot,” exploring the relationship between robots and humans. Many believe the event will feature updates on Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. Asimov’s stories revolve around three laws of robotics prioritizing human safety—1) A robot may not injure a human being or allow a human to be injured through inaction; 2) A robot must obey orders given by a human unless that conflicts with the first law; 3) A robot must protect its own existence unless that contradicts the first two laws. Those fit neatly into autonomous driving.
Deepwater Asset Management predicts that in addition to a Cybercab prototype, Tesla will provide previews (but not a prototype) for the $25,000 EV, which fans call the Model 2. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker expect the Model 2 to look similar to the Cybercab, likely based on comments from Tesla that the two would share a platform.
The firm also thinks Tesla will share more details on a Cybervan, a fully autonomous passenger van that could one day augment public transportation. This prediction is based on Tesla’s March 2023 investor presentation featuring a lineup of current and future vehicles, including a teaser of a van-sized car.
Some Potential Wildcards
Building a robotaxi is one thing. Commercializing it is another. Tesla may rely on its unique vehicles and general fan power to attract customers for a ride-hail service, but many won’t want to switch to a service likely to be less reliable at launch.
One wildcard prediction is that Tesla could announce a partnership with Uber, which has shown that its global ride-hail platform attracts autonomous vehicle companies. Over the past weeks, Uber has rapidly signed AV companies like Waymo, Cruise, Wayve, and others. While Musk seems to want to go it alone, partnering might be the best way to commercialize these vehicles.
Another potential wildcard is that McDonald’s might be involved, based on an X post from the fast food chain saying, “chat’s about to pop off 10.10.” Musk replied with the laugh-crying emoji, suggesting we might see some autonomous food delivery demo or announcement with McDonald’s on Thursday.
What We Don’t Expect to See
There will be plenty of hype and chatter about Musk’s vision of an autonomous future. The executive will likely make the same argument that Uber made a decade ago about shared rides. It will be so easy and cheap to hail an AV that people won’t need to own vehicles.
A rosy picture, but we don’t expect a clear path to commercialization on Thursday.
In the past, Musk said Tesla vehicles would achieve autonomy with merely a software update, allowing owners to add their cars to Tesla’s ride-sharing app and rent them out for extra cash. Tesla has said it would take about 25% to 30% of the ride revenue. In areas lacking enough people to share cars, Tesla would provide a dedicated fleet of robotaxis.
Musk has promised a fully autonomous Tesla for years but has yet to introduce one. Despite advancements in its driver assistance system, called Full Self-Driving (FSD), the tech is still not fully self-driving. It requires a human driver to stay attentive behind the wheel and take over if needed.
This might be why Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, a well-known Tesla bull, expects Tesla will offer a “dual” approach to autonomous ridesharing. There will be a “supervised” autonomous/FSD rideshare service and a fully autonomous app-based Cybercab. He anticipates an initial commercial launch slated for late 2025 or 2026.
Regarding Cybercab production, Deepwater analysts point to the lag between Tesla’s product unveilings and ramping production. The minimum gap was 10 months with the Model Y, while the Cybertruck took 48 months, and the Semi is at 79 months and counting.
Tesla delivered a handful of Semis in December 2022 but has yet to ramp up to volume production.
“This suggests production for any vehicles announced in August would begin in June 2025 at the earliest,” Deepwater wrote.
Since the robotaxi event got pushed back for Tesla to “make some important changes,” the product is likely still far from being ready for production.